In July 2025, the acquisition of SFR, owned by Patrick Drahi’s Altice Group, has not yet been finalized. However, several scenarios and potential buyers are being discussed in the media and recent analyses. Below is a summary of the available information:
Potential Interested Parties:
1. French Operators
- Bouygues Telecom: Often cited as a key player due to its network-sharing agreement with SFR since 2014. Bouygues may be interested in acquiring part of SFR’s mobile subscriber base (around 20 million subscribers) and infrastructure. However, the cost of taking over the network is estimated between €200 million and €300 million. Bouygues may seek to acquire a large portion of subscribers to justify the investment.
- Free (Iliad): Led by Xavier Niel, Free is also in the running, with a particular interest in SFR Business, a profitable division valued at around €3 billion. Free appears more focused on subscribers and certain business assets rather than infrastructure such as antennas.
- Orange: Despite being the market leader, Orange’s role in a potential acquisition seems limited due to regulatory constraints from the French Competition Authority, which may oppose a move that creates a dominant player. Orange might, however, acquire specific assets like a portion of the subscriber base or B2B operations.
2. Foreign Operators
- Middle Eastern Operators, including Saudi Telecom Company (STC) and Emirates Telecommunications (E&, formerly Etisalat), are mentioned as potential buyers. Already active in Europe, they could consider a partial or full acquisition to strengthen their European presence. However, a foreign buyout raises concerns about digital sovereignty, with French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci stating the government would be “very vigilant” on this issue.
- Other Groups, such as Bharti Airtel (which recently acquired 25% of British Telecom), may also be interested, though this remains speculative.
Possible Scenarios
1. Breakup and Asset Sale
- The most likely scenario is the breakup of SFR, with its assets (mobile subscribers, fixed-line subscribers, fiber network, antennas, SFR Business) split among several operators — mainly Bouygues and Free, with a smaller role for Orange. This would help maintain competitive balance in a market where four operators (Orange, SFR, Bouygues, Free) currently hold 96% of the share.
- For example, Bouygues might acquire part of the mobile network and most of the mobile subscribers, while Free could focus on SFR Business and some fixed-line customers. Fiber subscribers might be divided geographically to simplify the transition.
2. Full Acquisition by a Foreign Player
- A complete sale of SFR to a group like STC or E& would be a simpler path for Altice but would face scrutiny from the Competition Authority and the French government over concerns of sovereignty and network security. While this would maintain a four-player market, it could spark a new price war, impacting operator margins.
3. Acquisition by a French Consortium
- An alliance between Bouygues, Free, and potentially Orange to jointly acquire SFR is also under consideration. This would reduce the market to three players — a recurring idea since Free’s arrival in 2012 — but one that has consistently been blocked by regulatory barriers.
Context and Stakes
- Altice’s Financial Situation: Heavily indebted (about €24 billion after a February 2025 restructuring), Altice is looking to divest SFR to reduce its debt. SFR is valued between €23 and €30 billion, including debt.
- SFR’s Performance: The operator lost around 1.3 million subscribers in 2024 and reported a 5.6% revenue drop. Despite a slight rebound in Q1 2025 (+17,000 mobile subscribers), SFR remains troubled — with poor customer service and technological lag (no 5G SA, no Wi-Fi 7 box).
- Regulation: Any deal will be reviewed by the French Competition Authority or the European Commission to avoid monopolies or significant price hikes. A merger control investigation could take 3 to 6 months.
- Sovereignty: The French government, concerned about protecting critical infrastructure, may impose strict conditions on any foreign buyer.
Consequences for Subscribers
- Short Term: No major changes are expected for SFR customers. Current contracts will remain valid, and services should continue uninterrupted.
- Medium Term: A sale could lead to changes in plans, pricing, or services, depending on the buyer’s strategy. Subscriber redistribution could occur without direct customer choice — particularly for fiber.
- In Case of Price Increases: Subscribers will be able to cancel their contracts without penalty, as per consumer protection law. Contract termination fees can be checked on SFR’s website.
Timeline
- Altice’s accelerated safeguard procedure, launched in June 2025, is expected to conclude by September or October 2025. Acquisition talks may intensify in the fall, with announcements likely between January and spring 2026. Patrick Drahi hopes to finalize the sale by the end of 2025, but regulatory hurdles could delay the process.
Conclusion
No single buyer has been confirmed for the acquisition of SFR. Bouygues Telecom and Free appear to be the most likely candidates for a split of the assets, with Orange playing a secondary role. A full buyout by a foreign player like STC or E& remains a possibility but would be closely monitored by the government. If it goes through, the sale will be a complex process with major implications for the French telecom market. Subscribers should stay informed and compare offers to anticipate any upcoming changes.